Packers news: LaFleur on Parsons' return, Hargrave reported out for the season
Two Green Bay defensive items came through since our first entry. Our projected margin is 2.03 against a market at 1.0, and the gap is 1.03 points.
Our number
+2.0
Market
+1.0
Gap
+1.0
We publish where our number differs from the market. We do not publish plays. Betting these disagreements is 117-98 (54.4%) forward-graded against 52.4% breakeven, and the matchup model itself covers at 50.9% over 1184 games. A gap is a disagreement, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
What changed
Two Packers defensive reports have come in since our first entry on this game. ProFootballTalk quotes Matt LaFleur on Micah Parsons: "As soon as they give us the green light, he'll be out there." Our wire tagger filed the item as a season-status report and linked it to sack rate. Separately, CBS NFL reports that Javon Hargrave is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The tagger linked that item to no phase.
With these items on file, our projected margin for Green Bay is 2.03. The market's is 1.0. Nothing in today's facts gives a separate number for either report, so we are not attributing any part of our margin to Parsons or Hargrave. These are reports, not confirmed status changes.
The number
The posted line is -1.0 with Green Bay at home. The posted total is 52.5. Our model projects the Packers by 2.03, so we sit 1.03 points away from the market on the GB side.
The power ratings show two nearly matched teams. Green Bay ranks #22 at -0.93 and Dallas ranks #21 at -0.86. Our ratings across the league span 7.6 points, while the market's span 11.5. In general we rate teams closer together than the market does.
Where the game separates
The matchup model's three widest gaps:
- Big plays (explosive rate): 2.601 standard deviations, GB. Green Bay's offense is #15 against a Dallas defense at #32. Going the other way, Dallas's offense is #11 against Green Bay's #10 defense. - First and second down (early-down EPA): 2.529 standard deviations, GB. Green Bay's #11 offense meets the #32 Dallas defense. Dallas's #9 offense meets a Green Bay defense ranked #2. - Inside the 20 (red-zone TD rate): -2.096 standard deviations, DAL. Dallas's offense is #2 against a Green Bay defense at #25. Green Bay's offense is #25 against Dallas's #22.
This is a description of where the game separates, not a forecast. The matchup model is 50.9% against the spread over 1184 games. In its most confident quartile it is 47.3%. Its verdict: it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. Two phases lean Green Bay and one leans Dallas, but that does not tell us who covers.
On the wire
- ProFootballTalk quotes LaFleur on Parsons, as above. This is the only wire item linked to a phase: sack rate, which is not one of the three phases listed here. - CBS NFL reports Hargrave out for the season with a torn Achilles and lists three trade targets for the Packers. No phase linked. - ProFootballTalk reports the Cowboys hired Mike Pettine as a defensive assistant. No phase linked. - CBS NFL reports Dallas hired a former NFL head coach and Packers defensive coordinator to help fix a struggling defense. That fits with the Dallas defense ranking #32 in two of the phases above. No phase linked. - CBS NFL's early-odds piece reports that the Packers-Cowboys line has flipped. No phase linked.
None of the coaching hires changes a rating directly. They only show up if the Dallas defense plays differently.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 52.5. - Gating injury news arrives, especially confirmed status for Parsons, since that is the item tied to sack rate. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
Until then, the gap is 1.03 points on the GB side. 21+ where legal.
Packers-Cowboys: we make it Green Bay by 2.03, the market says 1.0
The number
The Cowboys visit the Packers on Sun 8:20PM ET. We project Green Bay by 2.03. The posted line is Packers -1.0, so the market's projected margin is 1.0, with a posted total of 52.5. That puts our number 1.03 points from the market, on the Green Bay side.
The gap is narrow because the two teams are close in our ratings. Dallas is #21 with a power rating of -0.86. Green Bay is #22 at -0.93. On ratings alone neither side has a clear edge. The gap comes from the matchup and home field, not from one team being better overall.
Our ratings are also more compressed than the market's. Our rating span across the league is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market. As a rule we spread teams less than the market does, so a gap of this size comes from the specifics of this game and not from a strong view on either team.
Where the game separates
Three phases stand out, and they don't all favour the same side.
Explosive rate (big gains): 2.601 SD toward Green Bay. The Packers' offense ranks #15 and meets a Dallas defense ranked #32. Going the other way, the Cowboys' offense (#11) faces a Green Bay defense ranked #10.
Early-down EPA (first and second down): 2.529 SD toward Green Bay. The Packers' offense is #11 against the same #32 Dallas defense. Dallas brings the #9 offense into a Green Bay defense ranked #2, its strongest unit in this matchup.
Red-zone TD rate (inside the 20): -2.096 SD, toward Dallas. The Cowboys' offense ranks #2 and meets a Green Bay defense ranked #25. When Green Bay has the ball, its #25 red-zone offense faces a Dallas defense ranked #22.
The overall picture: Green Bay rates better between the 20s and on early downs, and Dallas rates better once drives reach the red zone.
These phase splits describe the game. They don't predict who covers. Across a sample of 1184 games, our matchup model is 50.9% against the spread, and its most confident quartile is 47.3%. In the model's own words, it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. These separations explain where the game is decided. They are not a reason to expect a cover.
On the wire
ProFootballTalk reports that tests confirmed Packers DL Javon Hargrave tore his Achilles. We tag that as touching sack rate, which is not one of the top three phases here. It still affects Green Bay's pass rush against the #9 and #11 Dallas offensive units above.
CBS NFL reports that Green Bay and Jordan Love erupted in a win over the Bears behind a retooled offensive line. We tag that as touching dropback EPA. CBS NFL also reports that the Packers-Cowboys line flipped in early odds, which helps explain why the market and our number are now close.
Also on the wire, with no phase tagged: ProFootballTalk carries Packers LB Zaire Franklin's comments about Luther Burden, and Yahoo NFL reports that the Cowboys' coaching staff isn't providing answers to the team's problems. These are reports, not confirmed facts, and neither changes a number on our side.
What would change our mind
We will write again on this game if any of these happen:
- the line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7; - the total of 52.5 moves 1.5; - injury news touches a starter in one of the phases above, especially on the Green Bay defensive front after the Hargrave report; - our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.
This is the gap between our number and the market's, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
This thread updates when the line moves a point or crosses 3 or 7, when the total moves 1.5, when gating injury news lands, or when our own rating moves after the week's games. All matchups.