Rice and Simmons out for KC; our number edges up 0.13 to 11.59
Two Chiefs ruled out and our margin barely moved, from 11.46 to 11.59, against a posted KC -7.5.
Our number
+11.6
Market
+7.5
Gap
+4.1
We publish where our number differs from the market. We do not publish plays. Betting these disagreements is 117-98 (54.4%) forward-graded against 52.4% breakeven, and the matchup model itself covers at 50.9% over 1184 games. A gap is a disagreement, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
What changed
ProFootballTalk reports that Rashee Rice and Josh Simmons have been ruled out for the Chiefs. Our projected margin for Kansas City moved from 11.46 to 11.59, a change of 0.13. The gap to the market moved by the same amount, from 3.96 to 4.09.
The move is small and it goes up, not down. The feed tags the Rice and Simmons item against explosive rate, one of the phases we track. That phase is not among the three where this game separates most, which is likely why the number barely shifted. The posted line is still KC -7.5 and the total is 41.5.
The number
Our projected margin is Chiefs by 11.59. The market's is 7.5. The disagreement is 4.09 points, and we are on the Chiefs' side of it.
This is a published number and a comparison, not a recommendation. Kansas City is #2 in our power ratings at 4.34. Los Angeles is #32 at -5.02. Our ratings span 7.6 points across the league, against 11.5 for the market's. We spread teams less than the market does, and we still land further from the line than the market is willing to go on this game.
Where the game separates
Three phases stand out, all favoring Kansas City.
Field position (hidden yardage): a separation of 4.072 standard deviations. Kansas City's offense ranks #11 and Los Angeles's defense ranks #32. Los Angeles's offense ranks #32 and Kansas City's defense ranks #5.
EPA per rush (the running game): 2.315 standard deviations. Kansas City's offense ranks #1 against a Los Angeles defense at #10. Los Angeles's offense ranks #31 against a Kansas City defense at #12.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 2.241 standard deviations. Kansas City's offense ranks #1 against a Los Angeles defense at #8. Los Angeles's offense ranks #32 against a Kansas City defense at #17.
This is description, not prediction. Our matchup model has a 50.9% ATS rate over 1,184 games, and the quartile it is most confident about hits 47.3%. So a large separation here says how the game is shaped. It does not say Kansas City covers. We are testing whether the phases carry information beyond what the line already prices, and we will keep reporting where they do and don't.
On the wire
- Rashee Rice, Josh Simmons ruled out (Chiefs). ProFootballTalk reports it. It touches the explosive-rate phase. - Joe Alt, Derwin James remain out of practice (Chargers). ProFootballTalk reports it. No phase is attached yet, and an absence from practice is not a ruling on game status. - Several other items in the feed are odds roundups and prediction columns. We treat those as noise and they do not enter our number.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total of 41.5 moves by 1.5. - Injury news gates a Chargers or Chiefs starter. The Alt and James practice reports are the ones to watch. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
The edit is 0.13 on our side. Anything that moves the number by more than that will get its own entry.
Chargers' Ingold to IR; total slips to 41.5, our Chiefs margin sits at +11.46
What changed
Yahoo NFL reports the Chargers have placed fullback Alec Ingold on injured reserve, an out-for-the-season designation. Our model attaches no matchup phase to that item, so it doesn't map onto any of the phases we track.
The market moved too. The total went from 42.5 to 41.5, a change of -1.0. The posted line is Chiefs -7.5.
We can't tie the total move to the Ingold news. We only know both happened since our last entry.
The number
Our projected margin is Chiefs by 11.46. The market's implied margin, from the posted line, is 7.5. That leaves a gap of 3.96 points between our number and the market's.
The gap comes from the ratings. We have the Chiefs at #2 in our power ranking, with a rating of 4.34. We have the Chargers at #32, with a rating of -5.02. Our rating span is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market's.
This is a research note, not a recommendation. We publish where our number differs from the market's, and the reasoning is below.
Where the game separates
Three phases stand out, and all three favor Kansas City.
Field position (hidden yardage) is the largest at 4.072 standard deviations. The Chiefs' offense ranks #11 and the Chargers' defense ranks #32. The Chargers' offense is also #32, against a Chiefs defense at #5.
EPA per rush (the running game) separates by 2.315 standard deviations. The Chiefs' offense ranks #1. The Chargers' defense ranks #10, so this is not a soft matchup on that side. The Chargers' offense ranks #31 and the Chiefs' defense ranks #12.
EPA per play (overall efficiency) separates by 2.241 standard deviations. The Chiefs' offense ranks #1 and the Chargers' defense ranks #8. The Chargers' offense ranks #32 and the Chiefs' defense ranks #17.
These phases describe the game. They do not predict a cover. Our matchup model has an ATS rate of 50.9% over a sample of 1184 games, and its verdict is: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." Its top-quartile rate is 47.3%. So we read the phases as a description of where the teams differ, and we don't treat them as a signal on the line.
On the wire
Ingold's move to IR is the only Chargers item. It touches no phase.
The rest is Chiefs coverage:
- CBS NFL runs a piece asking whether the Chiefs have room for Tyreek Hill after reworking their offense. We tag it to the explosive-rate phase, but it is a discussion piece, not a roster move. - Yahoo NFL carries Eric Bieniemy on the Chiefs' passionate moments ("It's all about survival") and Steve Spagnuolo on the pass rush ("It's a step away"). - ESPN NFL notes the Chiefs have no sacks yet and still have faith in the rush.
None of these is a confirmed availability change. They're reports and quotes, and we weight them that way.
What would change our mind
We'll write again if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7 from the current -7.5. - The total moves 1.5 from the current 41.5. - Gating injury news lands on either side, meaning a starter in a phase that drives the separation above. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
Until one of those happens, the number stands: Chiefs by 11.46 against a posted 7.5.
Line moves -8.5 to -7.5; our gap to the market widens to 3.96 points
What changed
The line moved from -8.5 to -7.5 on Chiefs-Chargers, a change of 1.0 point. Our own projected margin did not move in this update. It still reads 11.46. The market shortened, so the distance between the two numbers went from 2.96 to 3.96 points.
Since our last entry, the wire has added a Chiefs offensive-line return and a few Kansas City and Los Angeles items, covered below. We have not changed any rating because of them.
The number
We project Kansas City to win by 11.46. The posted line is KC -7.5, which implies a market margin of 7.5, and the total is 42.5. The gap between our number and the market's is 3.96 points.
This is a published difference between two numbers, not a recommendation. Our power ratings put the Chiefs at #2 (4.34) and the Chargers at #32 (-5.02). The span of our ratings is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market's. Our scale is more compressed than the market's, so a gap this size on a single game is worth reading with that in mind.
Where the game separates
Three phases stand out, and all three favor Kansas City.
Field position (hidden yardage) is the largest separation at 4.072 standard deviations. The Chiefs' offense ranks #11 against a Chargers defense ranked #32. Los Angeles's offense ranks #32, and Kansas City's defense ranks #5.
EPA per rush (the running game) separates by 2.315 standard deviations. The Chiefs' offense ranks #1 against a Chargers defense at #10. The Chargers' offense ranks #31, and the Chiefs' defense ranks #12.
EPA per play (overall efficiency) separates by 2.241 standard deviations. Kansas City's offense is #1 and Los Angeles's defense is #8. The Chargers' offense is #32 and the Chiefs' defense is #17.
These are descriptions of the matchup, not predictions. Our matchup model has a 50.9% ATS rate over 1184 games, and its most confident quartile has been its weakest at 47.3%. We therefore read the phases as context for the number above and do not treat them as a signal that the Chiefs cover. Next we are testing whether phase separation adds anything beyond the power rating itself.
On the wire
ProFootballTalk reports that Josh Simmons was officially limited in his return to practice. That touches the Chiefs' sack-rate phase. A limited practice is a report of participation, not a confirmation of his status for Sunday.
On the Chargers' side, a Yahoo NFL piece titled "Ultimat Fan: It comes down to Bo" touches the dropback EPA phase. It is commentary, not a status report.
Two other Chiefs items sit outside our phase map. Yahoo NFL reports that the Chiefs' offense "has been elite again," and a Yahoo roundup lists Kansas City among trade-deadline buyers. ESPN NFL also reports the Chiefs have been sack-less since Week 1 while expressing faith in their pass rush. None of these items changed our number.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of the following happens:
- The line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 42.5. - Injury news gates a key player, including a change in Simmons's status. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
21+ where legal.
Our KC margin falls from +18.9 to +11.5 after Chargers QB news
What changed
Our rating on the game moved from +18.9 to +11.5, a change of -7.46 since our last entry. The gap between our number and the market's moved by the same amount: it was 10.42 and is now 2.96.
The item attached to the move is the wire. ProFootballTalk reports the Chargers have agreed to terms with QB Jake Browning. Our feed tags that item as touching the dropback-efficiency phase, which is where a quarterback change shows up in the model. The posted line is -8.5 and the total is 42.5. We are describing what our number did, not what the quarterback will do.
The number
We project Kansas City to win by +11.46. The market's implied margin is 8.5, so our number sits 2.96 points on the Chiefs' side of the posted line. Before the move that gap was 10.42, which is why the earlier entry read as a much larger disagreement.
A gap of 2.96 is a smaller disagreement than the one we last published. It is not a signal on its own. The graded record on these disagreements is shown separately on the page.
In the power ratings the Chiefs are #2 at 4.34 and the Chargers are #32 at -5.02.
Where the game separates
Three phases carry the separation. This is description, not prediction.
Field position (hidden yardage): the largest separation at 4.072 standard deviations, with Kansas City the advantaged side. The Chiefs' offense ranks #11, while the Chargers' defense ranks #32 and their offense ranks #32. Kansas City's defense ranks #5.
EPA per rush (running game): 2.315 standard deviations toward Kansas City. The Chiefs' offense ranks #1 against a Chargers defense ranked #10. The Chargers' offense ranks #31 and the Chiefs' defense ranks #12.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 2.241 standard deviations toward Kansas City. The Chiefs' offense ranks #1 and the Chargers' defense ranks #8. The Chargers' offense ranks #32 and the Chiefs' defense ranks #17.
One caution belongs here. Our matchup model has covered 50.9% of the time over a sample of 1184 games, and its most confident quartile covered 47.3%. The verdict on that model is that it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. A game separating in these phases tells you how it looks. It does not tell you who covers.
On the wire
- ProFootballTalk reports the Chiefs put WR Tyquan Thornton on IR and sign LB Cam Jones to the active roster. Our feed ties this to explosive-play rate. - ProFootballTalk reports the Chargers agree to terms with QB Jake Browning, tied to dropback efficiency. This is the item behind the move above. - CBS NFL is running a piece asking whether the Chargers will trade Justin Herbert, and the outlet also floats a possible Chargers fire sale ahead of the trade deadline. These are speculation, not confirmed moves. The Herbert item is tagged to dropback efficiency. - Yahoo NFL reports a jury returned a mixed verdict in the Tyreek Hill civil battery case. We have not tied this to a phase.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of the following happens:
- The posted line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total of 42.5 moves 1.5 points. - Gating injury news lands, including a confirmed change at quarterback for either side. - Our own rating moves 1.0 after the week's games.
This is research, not betting advice. 21+ where legal.
Chiefs place WR Tyquan Thornton on IR; our KC number stands at +18.92 vs the -8.5 line
What changed
ProFootballTalk reports the Chiefs have put WR Tyquan Thornton on injured reserve, ending his season, and signed LB Cam Jones to the active roster. Thornton's role maps to the explosive-rate phase of our model. Jones is a linebacker, so the signing sits on the other side of the ball.
Our projected margin for Kansas City stays at +18.92. The posted line is -8.5 and the total is 42.5. We are not claiming the move shifted our number. We are noting it and watching whether the receiver room thins further.
The Chargers side of the wire is mostly trade-deadline talk. CBS NFL is running a piece on a possible Chargers fire sale and a separate one on whether Justin Herbert could be dealt. Both are reports and speculation, not transactions.
The number
We project the Chiefs to win by +18.92. The market has them at 8.5. That leaves a gap of 10.42 points, with Kansas City the side our number leans toward. Kickoff is Sun 4:25PM ET.
A gap this size says our ratings are more spread out than the market's. Our rating span is 7.6 and the market's is 11.5. Kansas City is #2 in our power ranking at 4.34, and Los Angeles is #32 at -5.02. A disagreement this large is a reason to check our own inputs as much as the market's.
Where the game separates
This is a description of the matchup. It is not a prediction that Kansas City covers. The matchup model's record against the spread is 50.9% over 1184 games. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst, at 47.3%. We read these phases as context for the number and nothing more.
Field position (hidden yardage): the widest separation, at 4.072 standard deviations in Kansas City's favor. The Chiefs' offense ranks #11 against a Chargers defense ranked #32. The Chargers' offense is #32 against a Chiefs defense at #5.
EPA per rush (running game): 2.315 standard deviations toward Kansas City. The Chiefs' offense is #1 against a Chargers defense at #10. The Chargers' offense is #31 against a Chiefs defense at #12.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 2.241 standard deviations toward Kansas City. The Chiefs' offense is #1 against a Chargers defense at #8. The Chargers' offense is #32 against a Chiefs defense at #17.
On the wire
- Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton to IR, LB Cam Jones signed (ProFootballTalk). Touches explosive rate. - "One wide receiver most fits the bill for a Chiefs midseason trade" (Yahoo NFL). Also touches explosive rate. This is a commentary piece, not a report of a deal. - "Will Chargers trade Justin Herbert?" (CBS NFL). Touches dropback EPA. It is a report on possibility only. - "Possible Chargers fire sale?" (CBS NFL). Not mapped to a phase. - Andy Reid on Kenneth Walker's performances (ProFootballTalk). Not mapped to a phase.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 42.5. - Injury or roster news gates a key player. That includes a completed Herbert trade or further Chiefs receiver losses. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
This is a research note, not betting advice. 21+ where legal.
Ladd McConkey's status hits the wire; our KC number sits 10.42 points off the line
What changed
ProFootballTalk reports that Ladd McConkey was active for an "emergency situation" in Week 5 and could return in Week 6. Our wire feed filed the item as "ruled out." The report reads more like a note about him returning than a new absence, so we are treating his status as unsettled until the Chargers' own injury report settles it.
Our feed maps the item to the Chargers' explosive-play rate. That phase is not one of those driving our number in this game. As of this entry, our projected margin is Chiefs by 18.92. The posted line is Chiefs -8.5.
The number
The market's line implies Chiefs by 8.5. We project Chiefs by 18.92. That leaves us 10.42 points off the market, on the Kansas City side. The posted total is 42.5.
The gap comes from how far apart we rate these teams. Our power ratings have the Chiefs #2 at 4.34 and the Chargers #32 at -5.02. A gap this size against a liquid market is information in itself. The market may be pricing something our ratings do not capture, so we publish the gap without treating it as settled.
Where the game separates
The largest separation is in field position, the hidden yardage of returns, punts and starting spots. It is 4.057 standard deviations in Kansas City's favour. The Chiefs' offense ranks #11 against a Chargers defense ranked #32. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers' offense ranks #32 against a Chiefs defense ranked #5.
Next is the running game (EPA per rush), at 2.336 standard deviations toward Kansas City. The Chiefs' rushing offense is #1 against the Chargers' #10 run defense. Los Angeles brings the #31 rushing offense into a Chiefs run defense ranked #13.
Overall efficiency (EPA per play) follows at 2.289 standard deviations, also toward Kansas City. It is the Chiefs' #1 offense against the Chargers' #9 defense, and the Chargers' #32 offense against the Chiefs' #17 defense.
These rankings describe the matchup. They do not predict the result against the spread. Our matchup model has covered at 50.9% across a sample of 1184 games, and its most confident quartile has covered at 47.3%. The model's own verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." The game separates in these phases, but that is not evidence about who covers.
On the wire
- ProFootballTalk reports McConkey was active for an "emergency situation" in Week 5 and could return in Week 6. Phase touched: explosive-play rate. - ESPN NFL reports Jim Harbaugh saying he and ownership are "in this fight together" amid the Chargers' 0-5 start. Our feed tagged this as injury news, but it does not map to any phase. - CBS NFL lists Khalil Mack among trade-deadline candidates. This is speculation, not a transaction. If he were moved, it would touch the Chargers' sack rate. - CBS NFL also ran a piece on the Chargers' direction that discusses Mack, Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel. No phase. - Yahoo NFL raises questions about Omarion Hampton's usage. No phase. - CBS NFL published a Super Bowl contenders piece tagged to Kansas City. No phase.
What would change our mind
We will write again on any of these:
- the line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7 - the total moves 1.5 - injury news gates a starter, including a clear status for McConkey from the Chargers' report - our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games
Until one of those happens, the number stands as published: Chiefs by 18.92 against a posted -8.5. 21+ where legal.
Our KC number moves from +14.3 to +18.9, and the gap to the market is now 10.42
What changed
Our rating on the game moved from +14.3 to +18.9. In exact terms, our projected Chiefs margin went from 14.35 to 18.92, a change of 4.57 points. The posted line did not move with it, so our disagreement with the market grew by the same 4.57, from 5.85 to 10.42.
This is our second entry on LAC at KC. The first was published at 11:17 ET this morning. Since then, three Chargers items have come across the wire. None of them is an injury report, and none changes who is on the depth chart today. They are covered below. The move in our number comes from our own rating, not from a confirmed roster change.
The number
KC is posted at -8.5 with a total of 42.5, for a Sun 4:25PM ET kick. The market's projected margin is 8.5. Ours is 18.92. That gap of 10.42 points has us on the KC side of the number.
The ratings behind it are lopsided. The Chiefs rank #2 in our power ratings at 4.34. The Chargers rank #32 at -5.02. For context on scale, our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom, while the market's span 11.5. Our ratings are more compressed than the market's across the league. On this game, though, our projected margin is well outside the posted line.
Where the game separates
Three phases stand out, and the matchup model gives all of them to KC:
- Field position (hidden yardage) shows a separation of 4.057 standard deviations. The KC offense ranks #11 against a Chargers defense at #32. The Chargers offense ranks #32 against a KC defense at #5. - EPA per rush (running game) shows 2.336 SD. The KC offense ranks #1 and the LAC defense #10. The LAC offense ranks #31 and the KC defense #13. - EPA per play (overall efficiency) shows 2.289 SD. The KC offense is #1 and the LAC defense #9. The LAC offense is #32 and the KC defense #17.
This describes the matchup. It is not a forecast of the result. The matchup model has a 50.9% ATS record over a sample of 1184 games. In the quartile it is most confident about, it hits 47.3%. Its own verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." A game that separates in the trenches and in field position is a game that separates on those measures. It does not tell us who covers.
On the wire
CBS NFL has two pieces on the Chargers. One lists Khalil Mack among Pro Bowl trade-deadline candidates. The other argues that Mack should be traded and discusses the coaching staff. These are reports and opinion, not a confirmed move. If Mack were moved, it would affect the sack_rate phase. As of this entry, he has not been moved.
Yahoo NFL writes about the Broncos' pass rush showing up against the Chargers. That is a recap of the Chargers' previous game, and we have not tied it to a phase.
What would change our mind
We write again on any of the following:
- the line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7; - the total of 42.5 moves 1.5; - injury news that gates either side, or a confirmed Mack transaction, which would touch sack_rate; - our own rating on either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
Without one of those, the gap stands at 10.42. 21+ where legal.
We make it Chiefs by 14.35 over the Chargers; the market posts KC -8.5
The number
We project KC to beat LAC by 14.35 points at Arrowhead (Sun 4:25PM ET). The posted line is KC -8.5, so the market's projected margin is 8.5. That leaves 5.85 points between our number and the market's, and our number sits on the KC side of the line. The posted total is 42.5.
The power ratings explain most of the gap. KC is #2 in our ratings at 4.34. LAC is #32 at -5.02. That puts the two teams at opposite ends of our table.
One thing about scale: our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom, while the market's span 11.5. Our scale is usually the tighter of the two. That makes this disagreement worth noting, because here our number is larger than the market's.
Where the game separates
Three phases account for most of the matchup. All three favor KC.
Field position (hidden yardage): 4.057 SD. This is the widest separation on the board. KC's offense ranks #11 here and faces LAC's #32 defense. On the other side, LAC's #32 offense meets KC's #5 defense. Both matchups point the same way.
EPA per rush (running game): 2.336 SD. KC's #1 rushing offense faces LAC's #10 run defense. LAC's #31 rushing offense meets KC's #13 run defense.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 2.289 SD. KC's offense ranks #1 and faces LAC's #9 defense. LAC's #32 offense meets KC's #17 defense.
These phases describe the shape of the game. They are not a forecast of the result against the spread. Our matchup model has a sample of 1184 games, and its verdict is plain: it does not beat the spread. It covers at 50.9% overall. Its most confident quartile covers at 47.3%, the worst of the four. A game that separates this clearly in the phase data tells you where the contest is likely to be played. It does not tell you who covers. The 5.85-point disagreement above comes from our projected margin, not from this phase view.
On the wire
The wire this week is mostly game recap and commentary. None of it is injury or depth-chart news.
- ProFootballTalk reports the Broncos rallied late for a 23-17 win that sent the Chargers to 0-5. - ProFootballTalk also carries Sean Payton's comments from that game about what Denver's offense needs to improve. - Yahoo NFL gives the Chargers a 'C' grade in the loss to Denver. - Yahoo NFL writes that the Chiefs could put a stranglehold on the AFC West over the next three weeks. It also has an analysis of KC's defensive snap counts.
We have not tied any of these items to a matchup phase. The snap-count piece is the closest to our phase data because it covers KC's defensive personnel. If it leads to reported changes in usage, those would touch the field position and running game phases above.
What would change our mind
This is the opening entry for the week. We will write again if any of these happens:
- The line moves 1.0 point or more, or crosses 3 or 7 in either direction, from the posted KC -8.5. - The total moves 1.5 or more from the posted 42.5. - Gating injury news arrives for either side, especially anything that touches the phases above: KC's #1 rushing offense, LAC's #32 defense on hidden yardage, or either quarterback. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games are graded.
Until one of those happens, the number stands: 14.35 against a market 8.5.
21+ where legal.
This thread updates when the line moves a point or crosses 3 or 7, when the total moves 1.5, when gating injury news lands, or when our own rating moves after the week's games. All matchups.