Cardinals' Jeremiyah Love ruled out; our number sits 8.53 points off the market

What changed

Rotowire reports that Myles Garrett is not ready to return to practice, and the item is tagged ruled out for the Cardinals. This is a wire report, not a confirmed game-day status. It was the trigger for this entry.

The market total moved at the same time. It was 52.5 at our last entry and is now 51.5, a change of -1.0. The posted line is still -12.5. Our projected margin is 3.97, and nothing in this entry shows that figure shifting because of the Garrett report. We are noting the news and the total move, not claiming a mechanism between them.

Two Rams items also reached the wire. Yahoo NFL carries Sean McVay's explanation of why the Rams cut kicker Harrison Mevis after the Bills loss. ProFootballTalk reports that Rams LT Alaric Jackson is suspended two games for a postgame punch.

The number

Our projected margin is 3.97. The market's implied margin, from the -12.5 line, is 12.5. That leaves a disagreement of -8.53 points, with our number on the Cardinals' side of the line.

The power ratings frame the gap. The Rams rate #8 at 1.2 and the Cardinals #20 at -0.66. Our rating span across the league is 7.6, against a market span of 11.5. The market spreads teams out more than we do, and that difference accounts for much of the gap on this game.

This is a number and where it differs from the market. It is not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.

Where the game separates

Three phases show the widest separation, and all three favor the Rams on paper.

Moving the ball (available yards), 3.141 standard deviations. The Rams' offense ranks #1 and the Cardinals' defense ranks #20. The Cardinals' offense ranks #24 and the Rams' defense ranks #3.

Passing game (EPA per dropback), 2.495 standard deviations. The Rams' offense ranks #12 against a Cardinals defense ranked #31. Arizona's offense ranks #26 and the Rams' defense ranks #11.

Finishing drives (points per drive), 1.585 standard deviations. The Rams' offense ranks #10 against a Cardinals defense ranked #32. Arizona's offense ranks #17 and the Rams' defense ranks #20.

These are descriptions of where the game separates. They are not a forecast of the margin. The matchup model has a 50.9% ATS record over 1184 games, and its most confident quartile hit 47.3%. The model does not beat the spread. We treat the phase view as context, and next we are testing whether the separation numbers carry more information once they are weighed against the market's own rating span.

On the wire

- Myles Garrett (ARI), ruled out per Rotowire NFL. No phase is attached to this item. - Rams release kicker Harrison Mevis (CBS NFL, Yahoo NFL). This touches starting field position. CBS adds that the Rams signed a kicker from the Jets' practice squad. - Alaric Jackson suspended two games (ProFootballTalk). This touches sack rate, because he is the Rams' left tackle.

The wire also carries a sportsbook promotion item. It has no bearing on the game and we have ignored it.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from the current 51.5. - Gating injury news arrives, including a change in Garrett's status from the Cardinals or a further Rams offensive line report. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until one of those happens, the posted -12.5 against our 3.97 is the standing disagreement.

What changed

The line moved from -13.5 to -12.5, a change of 1.0 point. Our projected margin did not move, so the whole move shows up in the gap. It was -9.53 points before and is -8.53 now, a change of 1.0.

The move came alongside Rams roster news. The kicker was released and a replacement signed, and left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended. Our model did not change its rating in response. This is the market's repricing, not ours.

The number

We project the Rams to win by 3.97. The market's posted line implies 12.5. The difference is -8.53 points, and it sits on the Cardinals' side of the line. The posted total is 52.5.

That is a statement about where two numbers differ, not a call on the game. The gap shrank because the market moved toward our number, not because we moved.

Our power ratings put the Rams at #8 with a 1.2 rating and the Cardinals at #20 with a -0.66. Our rating span is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market. The market spreads teams out more than we do, which is a large part of why a double-digit favorite looks so different on our sheet.

Where the game separates

Three phases show the largest separation, and all three favor the Rams on paper.

Moving the ball (Available yards): 3.141 standard deviations of separation. The Rams' offense is #1 and the Cardinals' defense is #20. The Cardinals' offense is #24 and the Rams' defense is #3.

Passing game (EPA per dropback): 2.495 standard deviations. The Rams' offense is #12. The Cardinals' defense is #31, while the Cardinals' offense is #26 and the Rams' defense is #11.

Finishing drives (Points per drive): 1.585 standard deviations. The Rams' offense is #10 and the Cardinals' defense is #32. The Cardinals' offense is #17 and the Rams' defense is #20.

This is description, not prediction. The matchup model's own record is a reason for restraint. It covers at 50.9% over a sample of 1184 games. The quartile it is most confident about is its weakest, at 47.3%. Separation in a phase tells us how the game is shaped. It does not tell us who covers. We are now testing whether the phase gaps carry information once they are blended with the power ratings, rather than on their own.

On the wire

These are reports, not confirmed outcomes.

ProFootballTalk reports the Rams moved on kicker Harrison Mevis and signed Blake Grupe. CBS NFL, ESPN NFL and others report the release followed Mevis's misses in the overtime loss to the Bills. This touches starting field position.

Yahoo NFL reports a Rams player was suspended for a punch. ProFootballTalk reports left tackle Alaric Jackson's suspension is official. That touches sack rate, the phase most exposed when a starting tackle is out.

Neither item has been priced into our ratings. The kicker change and the suspension are the likeliest explanations for the market's move.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happen:

- The line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 points from 52.5. - Gating injury news arrives for either side, especially on the Rams' offensive line. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

21+ where legal. This is research, not a recommendation.

What changed

The line moved from -12.5 to -13.5, which is a change of -1.0. Our projected margin went from 3.82 to 3.97, a change of 0.15. The gap between our number and the market's went from -8.68 to -9.53. The market moved a full point toward the Rams and we moved very little, so the gap widened by -0.85.

The news in this window was about the Rams' kicker. ESPN reports, citing sources, that the Rams released Harrison Mevis after miscues in their OT loss to the Bills. Yahoo NFL also reports the release, and ProFootballTalk reports the Rams signed Blake Grupe to replace him. We tag all three items to the field-position phase. Our number did not treat the kicker change as a major factor, and the market's move was larger than ours.

The number

We project the Rams by 3.97. The posted line is -13.5, which implies a Rams margin of 13.5. The gap is -9.53 points, and our number sits on the ARI side of the posted line. The total is 52.5.

Our power ratings place the Rams #8 at 1.2 and the Cardinals #20 at -0.66. Part of this gap is structural. From top to bottom, our ratings span 7.6 points across the league, while the market's span 11.5. Our ratings sit closer together than the market's do, so we tend to give a smaller margin in lopsided games like this one. A gap of this size is partly a question about how far apart teams really are, and only partly about these two teams.

Where the game separates

The matchup phases describe the game. They do not predict who covers. Over a sample of 1184 games, our matchup model covers 50.9% of the time against the spread. In the quartile where it is most confident, it covers 47.3%. Its verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst."

With that caveat, here is where the game separates:

- Moving the ball (available yards): 3.141 SD in favor of LA. The Rams' offense ranks #1 against a Cardinals defense ranked #20. On the other side, the Cardinals' offense ranks #24 against a Rams defense ranked #3. - Passing game (EPA per dropback): 2.495 SD in favor of LA. The Rams' offense ranks #12 against the Cardinals' #31 defense. The Cardinals' offense ranks #26 against the Rams' #11 defense. - Finishing drives (points per drive): 1.585 SD in favor of LA. The Rams' offense ranks #10 against the Cardinals' #32 defense. The Cardinals' offense ranks #17 against the Rams' #20 defense.

All of the top phases favor the Rams. That describes what the matchup looks like. Given the record above, it does not tell us the Rams cover.

On the wire

- Kicker change (Rams): ProFootballTalk, Yahoo NFL and ESPN all report the release of Mevis, and ProFootballTalk reports the Grupe signing. These items touch field position. - DJ Moore status: CBS NFL has an item on the Bills receiver's status for Monday night against the Rams. Our feed tags it to the Rams and to explosive plays, but it concerns the Rams' previous opponent. We do not count it toward this game. - Marvin Harrison Jr.: ProFootballTalk carries comments from DeMeco Ryans on Harrison's work ethic. It touches no phase.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happen:

- The line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total of 52.5 moves 1.5. - Injury news changes who plays in a phase listed above. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.

If none of these happen, the gap stays at -9.53 and our number stays at the Rams by 3.97. 21+ where legal.

What changed

The line moved from -13.5 to -12.5. That 1.0-point move went toward our number. When we last wrote, we sat -9.68 points off the market. Now we sit -8.68 off it, a change of 1.0. Our own number did not move. The market came to us. The total moved the other way, from 51.5 to 52.5, also a change of 1.0.

None of the new wire items explains the move directly, and most of them look like they belong to a different game (more on that below). We read this as a market adjustment, not a news event.

The number

We project the Rams by 3.82. The market's posted line of -12.5 implies the Rams by 12.5. That leaves us -8.68 points off the market, on the Cardinals' side of the number. The posted total is 52.5.

Our power ratings put the Rams at #10 (1.06) and the Cardinals at #20 (-0.66). Part of the gap is structural. Our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom of the league, and the market's span 11.5. Our model sees less distance between teams in general, so a gap this wide partly reflects that different view of the league as a whole, not just a view of this game.

The graded record for disagreements like this one appears separately on this page.

Where the game separates

The matchup data points mostly toward Los Angeles:

- Moving the ball (available yards): separation of 3.159 standard deviations, Rams. The Rams' offense ranks #2 against a Cardinals defense at #20. The Cardinals' offense ranks #24 against a Rams defense at #2. - Passing game (EPA per dropback): separation of 2.394 standard deviations, Rams. The Rams' offense ranks #16 against a Cardinals pass defense at #31. The Cardinals' offense ranks #26 against a Rams defense at #5. - Ball security (takeaways vs giveaways): separation of -1.689 standard deviations, Cardinals. The Cardinals' defense ranks #4 against a Rams offense at #23. The Cardinals' offense ranks #14 against a Rams defense at #23.

This describes the matchup. It does not predict the result. Our matchup model goes 50.9% against the spread over a sample of 1184, and its most confident quartile goes 47.3%. In its own words, it "does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." The Rams have the clearer edge in yardage and passing. That tells us what kind of game this may be, not who covers.

On the wire

ProFootballTalk reports comments from Monti Ossenfort on the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade. We tag the item to the explosive-play phase on the Cardinals' side. It is the most relevant roster item for this game.

CBS NFL has a piece on DJ Moore's status, tagged to the Rams and the explosive-play phase. The piece describes Moore as a Bills receiver in a Monday Night Football game against the Rams. We treat it as tied to a different Rams game, not this one. Yahoo NFL ran a column on the Rams' championship hopes. It touches no phase. The remaining CBS NFL items are sportsbook promotions and carry no matchup information.

What would change our mind

We will write again if:

- the line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7; - the total moves 1.5; - injury news touches the yardage, passing or ball-security phases above, or there is a clearer report on how the Harrison trade changes the Cardinals' receiver group; - our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.

Until one of those happens, the picture is as stated: the Rams by 3.82 for us, -12.5 posted, and -8.68 between them.

What changed

Since our last entry, the Rams have moved from -12.5 to -13.5, a line change of -1.0. The total has dropped from 52.5 to 51.5. Our disagreement went from -8.68 to -9.68, which is the same -1.0 the line moved. The market came further toward Los Angeles and our projection didn't move with it.

This entry was triggered by a Rotowire report headlined 'DJ Moore: Inactive in Week 5', which our wire tagged to LA. It needs care. The headline refers to Week 5, it came in alongside a Yahoo item on Bills inactives at the Rams, and our wire doesn't link it to any phase of this matchup. We're using it as a reason to re-check the number. It didn't change our number. Nothing on the wire changed our projected margin.

The number

We project the Rams by 3.82. The posted line implies the Rams by 13.5. That leaves us -9.68 points off the market, with our number on the ARI side of the line. The posted total is 51.5.

Some context on scale: our power ratings span 7.6, while the market's span 11.5. Our ratings are more compressed than the market's, which pulls our margins toward zero in lopsided games like this one. LA is #10 in our power ratings at 1.06. ARI is #20 at -0.66.

Where the game separates

Moving the ball is the widest gap, at 3.159 standard deviations in LA's favour. The Rams' offense ranks #2 against an Arizona defense at #20. On the other side, Arizona's #24 offense faces a Rams defense ranked #2.

The passing game separates by 2.394 standard deviations, also toward LA. The Rams' #16 offense faces Arizona's #31 defense, and Arizona's #26 offense faces a #5 Rams defense.

Ball security goes the other way, at -1.689 standard deviations toward ARI. Arizona's defense ranks #4 against a Rams offense at #23, and Arizona's #14 offense faces a Rams defense at #23.

That describes the matchup. It doesn't forecast the result. Our matchup model has covered at 50.9% across 1184 games, and its most confident quartile has hit 47.3%. Its own verdict is that it does not beat the spread. A game can separate in the trenches without that telling us who covers.

On the wire

- Rotowire NFL reports DJ Moore inactive in Week 5. Our wire tagged it to LA but linked it to no phase. See the caveat above. - ProFootballTalk carries Monti Ossenfort's comments on the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade, and ESPN NFL reports on why the Cardinals traded him to the Texans. Our wire links the PFT item to ARI's explosive-play rate, which isn't one of the top phases in this matchup. We're watching to see whether Arizona's passing-game rank shifts once games without him are in the sample. - Yahoo NFL items on Bills Week 5 inactives at the Rams and on Aaron Donald's status are tagged LA. Neither links to a phase and neither is clearly about this game, so neither has changed the number.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happen:

- The spread moves 1.0 point from -13.5, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 51.5. - Gating injury news is confirmed for either side, especially anything that affects moving the ball or the passing game, where this matchup separates most. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.

We publish a number and show where it differs from the market. We don't tell anyone what to bet. 21+ where legal.

The number

The Rams are posted at -12.5 at home to the Cardinals, Sun 4:05PM ET, with a total of 52.5. Our projected margin is LA by 3.82. The market's is LA by 12.5. That leaves a disagreement of -8.68 points, and it puts our number on the ARI side of the line.

Most of the gap comes from how far apart each side thinks these teams are. We rate the Rams #10 in our power ratings at 1.06 and the Cardinals #20 at -0.66. Our ratings run across a span of 7.6 points from top to bottom. The market's implied ratings run across 11.5. We spread the league out less than the market does, and a #10-vs-#20 matchup is exactly where that difference shows up as a large number.

Where the game separates

The matchup profile leans hard toward LA, which is worth saying plainly given where our number sits.

Moving the ball (available yards): 3.159 SD toward LA. This is the widest gap in the game. The Rams' offense ranks #2 and faces a Cardinals defense at #20. On the other side, Arizona's offense ranks #24 against a Rams defense at #2.

Passing game (EPA per dropback): 2.394 SD toward LA. The Rams' passing offense is #16, but it meets an Arizona pass defense at #31. Arizona's dropback offense ranks #26 and faces a Rams defense at #5.

Ball security (takeaways vs giveaways): -1.689 SD, toward ARI. This is the one phase that favors Arizona. The Cardinals' defense ranks #4 at taking the ball away, and the Rams' offense ranks #23 at protecting it. Arizona's offense ranks #14 here against a Rams defense at #23.

These phases describe what the game looks like. They don't predict the result. The matchup model built on them has hit 50.9% against the spread over 1184 games, and its most confident quartile has hit 47.3%. Its verdict in our own records is that it does not beat the spread. So a game that separates in the trenches the way this one does tells us how it is likely to be played, not who covers.

On the wire

The week's biggest item is on Arizona's side. CBS NFL and ESPN NFL report that the Cardinals have traded Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Texans for draft choices, which reunites him with C.J. Stroud. ProFootballTalk reports the deal was most likely done before Sunday's games started.

We tag two of those reports to the passing-game phase (EPA per dropback), where Arizona's offense already ranks #26. A third, the ProFootballTalk item on Stroud and Harrison, touches explosive-play rate. The others carry no phase tag. Losing a top receiver is the kind of change that can shift how the passing phase reads for Arizona once games are played without him. We'll be watching that phase specifically.

What would change our mind

We'll write again if any of these happen:

- The line moves 1.0 point from -12.5, or crosses 7 or 3. - The total moves 1.5 from 52.5. - Gating injury news on either side, particularly anything that touches the passing-game or available-yards phases. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games. Given the Harrison trade, Arizona's rating is the one we'll watch most closely.

This is a published number and where it sits against the market. It isn't a recommendation. 21+ where legal.