Mayfield ruled out; total slips to 39.5, our TB margin +2.81 vs market -2.5
Rotowire reports Baker Mayfield is out for Sunday. The total fell 1.0 to 39.5, and our number still sits 5.31 points from the market's on Tampa Bay.
Our number
+2.8
Market
-2.5
Gap
+5.3
We publish where our number differs from the market. We do not publish plays. Betting these disagreements is 117-98 (54.4%) forward-graded against 52.4% breakeven, and the matchup model itself covers at 50.9% over 1184 games. A gap is a disagreement, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
What changed
Rotowire reports that Baker Mayfield has been ruled out for Sunday's game. Since our last entry the total has moved from 40.5 to 39.5, a change of -1.0. The market is pricing a lower-scoring game with Tampa Bay's quarterback absent.
We can't say that this report is already in our margin. The facts we have don't show our projection moving, and we won't claim it did. The figures below are what the engine currently publishes. Until we confirm our inputs reflect the quarterback change, read the gap as unadjusted for it.
The number
Our projected margin is TB +2.81. The market's projected margin is -2.5 from Tampa Bay's side, with a posted line of 2.5 and a total of 39.5. That leaves a disagreement of 5.31 points, with us on TB.
On power ratings, TB ranks #18 at -0.38 and PIT ranks #23 at -1.09. Our ratings span 7.6 across the league, against 11.5 for the market's. Our scale is narrower, which is one reason our numbers sit closer to pick'em than the market's.
This is a published number and where it differs from the market. It is not a recommendation.
Where the game separates
Pressure is the largest separation, at -2.203 standard deviations in PIT's favor. TB's offense ranks #30 in this phase and PIT's defense ranks #13. A TB backup quarterback behind that line is the part of this picture the wire touches most directly, though the item itself is not tagged to a phase.
Running game favors TB by 1.537 standard deviations. TB's offense ranks #6 and PIT's defense ranks #25. PIT's offense ranks #5 against TB's defense at #4.
Staying on schedule favors TB by 1.137 standard deviations. PIT's defense ranks #27 and TB's offense ranks #23.
These phases describe the matchup. They don't predict a cover. The matchup model has an ATS rate of 50.9% across 1184 games, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst, at 47.3%. The idea that phase separation adds information beyond the market line has not held up. Next we test whether the separations carry signal for totals and for game flow, rather than for the spread.
On the wire
- Rotowire reports Mayfield is ruled out for Sunday. It is not tagged to a phase, though a quarterback change bears on the dropback game and on pressure. - ESPN covers how Aaron Rodgers prepares Steelers pass catchers. It is tagged to dropback EPA and is color, not a status change. - CBS and Yahoo each published pick columns on this game. We treat them as noise and give them no weight.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 39.5. - Gating injury news arrives, including confirmation of who starts for TB or a change to the PIT quarterback. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
Kickoff is Sun 1:00PM ET. 21+ where legal.
PIT at TB: our number has Tampa Bay at 2.81, the market's is -2.5
The number
Our projected margin for Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (Sun 1:00PM ET) is 2.81 in the Buccaneers' favor. The market's projected margin is -2.5, and the posted line is 2.5. The posted total is 40.5. That puts us 5.31 points from the market, on the TB side of the disagreement.
The gap starts with the power ratings. We have Tampa Bay #18 at -0.38 and Pittsburgh #23 at -1.09. Both teams sit in the lower half of our board, and the market rates them further apart in the other direction. Part of that is structural. Our ratings span 7.6 from top to bottom and the market's span 11.5, so our board is more compressed than the market's. A compressed board pulls more games toward the middle, and this is one where the two views end up on opposite sides of zero.
Where the game separates
The largest separation favors Pittsburgh. In pass rush vs protection (pressure), the separation is -2.21 standard deviations toward PIT. Tampa Bay's offense ranks #30 in this phase and faces a Pittsburgh defense at #14. On the other side, Pittsburgh's offense at #15 faces a Tampa Bay defense at #30. Of the top phases, this is the clearest mismatch on the page, and it runs against our side of the number.
The next two favor Tampa Bay. In EPA per rush (the running game), the separation is 1.53 standard deviations toward TB. The Buccaneers' offense ranks #6 against a Steelers defense at #25. Pittsburgh's rushing offense is also strong at #5, but it meets a Tampa Bay defense at #4.
In success rate (staying on schedule), the separation is 1.121 standard deviations toward TB. Tampa Bay's offense is #23 against a Pittsburgh defense at #27. Pittsburgh's offense is #22 against a Tampa Bay defense at #5.
All of this describes the matchup. None of it forecasts the result. Our matchup model hits 50.9% against the spread over a sample of 1184 games, and in its most confident quartile it hits 47.3%. Its own verdict reads: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." The phase table shows where the two teams differ. It does not tell us who covers, and we don't use it that way.
On the wire
ProFootballTalk and Yahoo NFL's Three Rivers Report both report on Jaylen Warren's form at running back for Pittsburgh. Both items touch the running-game phase, where Pittsburgh's rushing offense ranks #5 and meets a Tampa Bay run defense ranked #4.
ProFootballTalk also carries Fred Warner's praise of Mike Evans. That item touches explosive plays, which is not one of the top phases above.
CBS NFL reports Aaron Rodgers moving up the NFL record book. A Yahoo NFL item on UNC vs Pittsburgh is tagged to PIT but is about college football. Neither touches a phase we track. None of the current items is injury or depth-chart news.
What would change our mind
We will write again on this game if any of the following happens:
- The line moves 1.0 point or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5. - Injury news arrives that gates a phase, especially on Tampa Bay's protection, where the pressure phase already runs against our side. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.
This is a published number and where it differs from the market, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
This thread updates when the line moves a point or crosses 3 or 7, when the total moves 1.5, when gating injury news lands, or when our own rating moves after the week's games. All matchups.