Jets lose Hall and Mitchell; our NE margin widens to +4.76, still short of -7.5

What changed

The Patriots line crossed 7, moving from -6.5 to -7.5, a move of -1.0. Our gap to the market moved with it, from -2.63 to -3.63. The market now asks for a bigger Patriots margin than it did when we last wrote, and our projection is further from that price.

The move came alongside fresh wire traffic on New England, led by a CBS NFL report on A.J. Brown's practice window. We cover it below.

The number

Our projected margin is Patriots by 3.87. The market's implied margin is 7.5, off a posted line of -7.5 and a posted total of 43.5. The difference is -3.63 points, and the side that sits on is the Jets.

This is a statement about where two numbers sit, not a recommendation. Our power ratings have the Patriots at #9 (1.19) and the Jets at #19 (-0.58). Our rating span across the league is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market's. The market spreads teams further apart than we do, and that pattern shows up in this game.

The move through 7 matters because 7 is a common NFL margin. A line at -7.5 prices a one-score Patriots win differently from -6.5, which is why this move triggered a new entry.

Where the game separates

Available yards (moving the ball), 2.274 standard deviations, advantage Patriots. New England's offense ranks #2 against a Jets defense ranked #17. The Jets' offense is #26 against a Patriots defense at #5. This is the largest separation in the matchup.

Field position (hidden yardage), -1.927 standard deviations, advantage Jets. This phase points the other way. The Patriots' offense ranks #31 here and their defense #20, while the Jets' offense is #10 and their defense #8.

Explosive rate (big plays), 1.854 standard deviations, advantage Patriots. New England's offense is #9 against a Jets defense at #12. The Jets' offense is #27 against a Patriots defense at #2.

These phases describe the game and do not predict the result. The matchup model has a 50.9% ATS record over a sample of 1184 games, and its top-quartile games hit 47.3%. A phase edge for one team therefore does not tell us that team covers. Next we are testing whether phase separation adds anything once the power rating is already in the number.

On the wire

CBS NFL reports that the Patriots are opening up A.J. Brown's practice window, with a return described as imminent in the headline. That touches the explosive-rate phase, where New England's offense is #9. We treat it as a report and not a confirmed status.

CBS NFL also has a piece on what has changed for Drake Maye and New England. Yahoo NFL has two Jets items: Garrett Wilson speaking ahead of the Patriots game, and a feature on rookie David Bailey and the Jets' matchup with Maye. None of these maps to a specific phase in our model.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of the following happens:

- The line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7 again. - The total moves 1.5 from 43.5. - Injury news gates a key player, including a change in the A.J. Brown report. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until then, the number is Patriots by 3.87 against a market at 7.5. 21+ where legal.

What changed

Our number moved. We had New England winning by 4.76; we now have it winning by 3.87, a change of -0.89. Because the posted line did not move, the gap to the market widened by the same amount, from -1.74 to -2.63.

What fired this entry: ProFootballTalk reports that Jets receiver KC Concepcion will practice on Wednesday while working through concussion protocol. Rotowire reports Omar Cooper is making his return to practice Wednesday. These are reports, not confirmed outcomes, and neither item carries a matchup-phase tag in our data.

The number

The market has the Patriots favored by 6.5 (posted line -6.5, total 43.5). Our projection has them winning by 3.87. That leaves us 2.63 points on the Jets side of the posted number.

This is a statement about where two numbers sit, not a recommendation. The market projects a margin of 6.5 and we project 3.87, and the reasons they differ are what the rest of this note covers.

On power ratings, New England is #9 at 1.19 and the Jets are #19 at -0.58. Our ratings span 7.6 points across the league, while the market's span 11.5. The market stretches teams further apart than we do, which is part of why we sit closer to even here.

Where the game separates

These are descriptions of how the units line up, not a forecast of who covers. Our matchup model has landed at 50.9% against the spread over 1184 games, and its most-confident quartile sits at 47.3%. We treat the phases as context rather than a signal, and we are testing whether phase separation adds anything beyond the power ratings.

Available yards (moving the ball), 2.274 SD, NE. The Patriots' offense is #2 against a Jets defense ranked #17. The Jets' offense is #26 against New England's #5 defense. This is the widest separation on the board.

Field position (hidden yardage), -1.927 SD, NYJ. The separation runs the other way. New England's offense is #31 here against a Jets defense ranked #8, while the Jets' offense is #10 against a Patriots defense ranked #20.

Explosive rate (big plays), 1.854 SD, NE. The Patriots' offense is #9 against a Jets defense ranked #12. The Jets' offense is #27 against a Patriots defense ranked #2.

On the wire

- Concussion protocol, Jets (ProFootballTalk): Concepcion will practice Wednesday while working through protocol. No phase tagged. - Return, Jets (Rotowire NFL): Omar Cooper is making his return to practice Wednesday. No phase tagged. - Transaction, Jets (CBS NFL): CBS reports the Rams released kicker Harrison Mevis and signed the Jets' practice squad kicker. This touches the field-position phase, where the Jets already hold the separation. - Breece Hall (Rotowire NFL): Not practicing, still week-to-week. No phase tagged. - Adonai Mitchell (Rotowire NFL): Undergoes a hand procedure, still week-to-week. No phase tagged.

Kickoff is Sun 1:00PM ET, so Wednesday's practice reports are early information and the picture can still change.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happen:

- The posted line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 43.5. - Gating injury news arrives, including a change in Concepcion's protocol status or the Hall and Mitchell timelines. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until one of those happens, the number stands at NE by 3.87 against the market's 6.5.

What changed

The line on Jets at Patriots crossed 7, moving from -7.5 to -6.5. That is a 1.0-point move toward New York. The total came down with it, from 44.5 to 43.5.

Our own number went the other way. Our projected Patriots margin rose from 3.96 to 4.76, a change of 0.8. The market moved toward our side while our number moved toward the market, so the disagreement shrank from -3.54 to -1.74. That is a change of 1.8 points.

Since our last entry the news has been one story. ProFootballTalk reports that Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson has a high-ankle sprain. Yahoo NFL and ESPN NFL report that he will miss multiple weeks. We note that the reports and the line move came at the same time. We are not claiming the reports moved the line.

The number

The posted line is Patriots -6.5 with a total of 43.5. We project the Patriots by 4.76, and the posted line implies 6.5. That leaves our number -1.74 off the market, on the Jets' side of the posted spread.

New England is #8 in our power ratings at 1.19. New York is #19 at -0.58. Across the league our ratings are more compressed than the market's: our rating span is 7.6 and the market's is 11.5. So part of any gap on a favorite this size comes from the shape of our scale, not only from how we read this game.

Where the game separates

Moving the ball is the widest gap, at 2.31 standard deviations in New England's favor. The Patriots' offense ranks #1 in available yards against a Jets defense at #17. The Jets' offense sits #26 against a Patriots defense at #5.

Hidden yardage runs the other way, at -1.919 standard deviations toward the Jets. New England's offense ranks #31 in field position against New York's defense at #8. The Jets' offense is #10 against a Patriots defense at #20.

Big plays lean New England at 1.895 standard deviations. The Patriots' offense is #8 against the Jets' defense at #12, and the Jets' offense is #27 against the Patriots' defense at #2.

This section describes where the two teams differ. It is not a forecast. Our matchup model has its own verdict over a sample of 1184 games: it does not beat the spread, at 50.9% against the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst, at 47.3%. A yardage or big-play edge on this page is not evidence that a team covers.

On the wire

The Henderson items come from ProFootballTalk, Yahoo NFL (two reports) and ESPN NFL. All of them are tagged to New England's rushing-efficiency phase. That phase is not among the top separations above, so these reports don't directly change the matchup picture shown here. They are reports and not confirmed team designations, and we treat them that way.

CBS NFL also reports that Bill Belichick was noticeably absent from the Patriots' celebration of a past Super Bowl team. That item touches no phase.

What would change our mind

We will write on this game again if any of these happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point from -6.5, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 43.5. - Injury news that gates the game arrives. That includes an official designation on Henderson or any change at quarterback for either side. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until one of those happens, the number stands at 4.76 against a posted -6.5.

What changed

ProFootballTalk reports that Carson Schwesinger has a Grade 1 ankle sprain and is not ruled out. That is the item that triggered this entry. Our wire filed it under "ruled out," but the report itself says the opposite, so we are treating it as an open availability question and not a confirmed absence. It is tagged to the Jets and is not linked to any of the matchup phases we track, so it does not change the picture of where this game separates.

Three other items have come in since our first entry. Yahoo NFL has Caleb Lomu ready to start after Will Campbell's injury, which touches the Patriots' sack-rate phase. ProFootballTalk quotes Mike Vrabel saying there is a chance A.J. Brown returns this week, which touches explosive rate. And Yahoo NFL covers Geno Smith leading a fourth-quarter win for the Jets. None of these is a confirmed status change.

After these reports, our projection has New England by 3.96.

The number

The posted line is Patriots -7.5 with a total of 44.5. The market's implied margin is 7.5 and ours is 3.96, which puts us -3.54 off the market, on the Jets' side of the number.

Some context on the size of that gap: our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom of the league, and the market's span 11.5. We rate the Patriots #8 at 1.19 and the Jets #19 at -0.58. Because our scale is more compressed than the market's, our numbers sit closer to zero, and that accounts for part of any disagreement on a game between a top-ten team and a bottom-half team.

Where the game separates

Moving the ball (available yards): 2.31 SD, New England. This is the biggest gap on the card. The Patriots' offense ranks #1 and faces a Jets defense ranked #17. The Jets' offense ranks #26 and faces a Patriots defense ranked #5.

Hidden yardage (field position): -1.919 SD, New York. This one goes the other way. The Patriots' offense ranks #31 here against a Jets defense at #8. The Jets' offense ranks #10 against a Patriots defense at #20.

Big plays (explosive rate): 1.895 SD, New England. The Patriots' offense ranks #8 against a Jets defense at #12. The Jets' offense ranks #27 against a Patriots defense at #2.

These phases describe the game; they do not predict the result. Our matchup model is 50.9% against the spread over 1184 games, and 47.3% in the quartile it is most confident about. Its own verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." A two-phase edge for New England is a description of the matchup, not a statement about who covers.

On the wire

- Schwesinger (NYJ): ProFootballTalk reports a Grade 1 ankle sprain, not ruled out. No phase tag. - Lomu (NE): Yahoo NFL reports he is ready for a starting role after Campbell's injury. Tagged to sack rate, which is not one of the top three phases above. - A.J. Brown (NE): Vrabel, via ProFootballTalk, says there is a chance he returns. Tagged to explosive rate, a phase where New England already holds the edge. - David Bailey (NYJ): CBS NFL writes up his sack day against the Browns. No phase tag. - Geno Smith (NYJ): Yahoo NFL covers his fourth-quarter win. No phase tag.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of the following happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point from -7.5, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 44.5. - Gating injury news arrives, such as a confirmed status for Schwesinger or Brown. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

21+ where legal.

The number

The posted line for NYJ at NE (Sun 1:00PM ET) is Patriots -7.5, with the total at 44.5. Our projected margin has New England by 3.96. That leaves us -3.54 points off the market, and the gap falls on the NYJ side of the number.

Most of that gap comes from how far apart we think these two teams are. Our power ratings have the Patriots #8 at 1.19 and the Jets #19 at -0.58. Across the league our ratings span 7.6, where the market's span 11.5. We see a flatter league than the market does. A flatter league means smaller margins between upper-tier and mid-table teams, and this game is one of them.

Where the game separates

Moving the ball (available yards) is the widest gap in this matchup, at 2.31 standard deviations toward NE. The Patriots' offense ranks #1 against a Jets defense at #17. Going the other way, the Jets' offense ranks #26 into a Patriots defense at #5. Both sides of that comparison point the same direction.

Explosive rate is next, at 1.895 standard deviations toward NE. New England's offense is #8 against New York's #12 defense, and the Jets' offense sits #27 against a Patriots defense ranked #2.

Field position, the hidden yardage, is the one top phase that runs the other way. It sits at -1.919 standard deviations, in NYJ's favor. The Patriots' offense ranks #31 there against a Jets defense at #8, and the Jets' offense is #10 against a #20 Patriots defense.

So the game separates toward New England on yardage and explosiveness, and toward New York on field position. That describes the matchup. It does not forecast the result. Our matchup model has graded at 50.9% against the spread on a sample of 1184, and its top quartile, the games it is most confident about, has run at 47.3%. Its verdict: it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. The phase picture shows the shape of the game. It does not tell us who covers.

On the wire

None of this week's wire items is an injury or depth-chart report. Everything below is news coverage, attributed to its source.

ProFootballTalk and Yahoo NFL both report on Drake Maye's big first half against the Raiders. Neither item touches a tracked phase.

ProFootballTalk reports that David Bailey's multi-sack game against the Browns has made him a favorite for defensive rookie of the year, and CBS NFL asks whether his breakout has arrived. The ProFootballTalk item maps to sack rate. Sack rate is not one of the top phases in this matchup, so it does not change our read of where this game separates.

ESPN NFL's item on the Jets' 'Cleveland Brown' troll touches no phase.

What would change our mind

We will write again on this game if any of the following happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point from -7.5, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 44.5. - Gating injury news arrives, especially anything that reaches the available-yards or field-position phases, where this matchup separates most. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until then, our number is New England by 3.96 against a market at 7.5.