Our number has the Giants at 4.64 over the Saints; the market's sits at -1.0
We open the week 5.64 points off the market on NO at NYG, mostly because of hidden yardage, where the Giants' defense ranks #1 and the Saints' offense #28.
Our number
+4.6
Market
-1.0
Gap
+5.6
We publish where our number differs from the market. We do not publish plays. Betting these disagreements is 117-98 (54.4%) forward-graded against 52.4% breakeven, and the matchup model itself covers at 50.9% over 1184 games. A gap is a disagreement, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
The number
We project the Giants to win by 4.64 at home against the Saints. The market's projected margin for the Giants is -1.0, which goes with a posted line of 1.0 and a total of 45.5. That leaves 5.64 points between our number and theirs, and the Giants are the side our number leans toward. Kickoff is Sun 1:00PM ET.
Most of the gap comes from the overall ratings. Our power ratings put the Giants #16 at -0.03 and the Saints #27 at -2.57. Our ratings also spread teams less than the market's do: our span runs 7.6, the market's 11.5. So when we disagree with the market this much, it is usually about how we order the teams, not about our ratings being more extreme.
Where the game separates
Field position (hidden yardage): 3.143 SD, Giants. This is the biggest separation on the board. When the Saints have the ball, their #28 offense faces the Giants' #1 defense in this phase. When the Giants have it, their #16 offense faces the Saints' #31 defense. Both sides of the ball point the same way.
Available yards (moving the ball): -1.657 SD, Saints. This phase goes the other way. The Saints' #8 offense meets a Giants defense ranked #26. The Giants' #19 offense runs into a Saints defense ranked #6. On a straight yards-gained view, New Orleans has the better matchup.
EPA per dropback (passing game): 1.561 SD, Giants. The Giants' #3 pass defense faces a Saints offense ranked #18. On the other side, a Giants offense ranked #15 meets a Saints defense ranked #25.
Two of the three top phases favor New York, and one clearly favors New Orleans. That describes the matchup; it does not predict the result. Our matchup model's verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." Its against-the-spread record is 50.9% over 1184 games, and its top quartile is 47.3%. The phase picture helps explain where the teams differ. It is not a reason to expect a cover.
On the wire
All of the wire items this week concern New York. None concern New Orleans.
- ProFootballTalk carries Cam Skattebo saying his fight for extra yards "bit me on Sunday." This touches rushing efficiency, which is not one of the three phases above. - CBS NFL reports on the end of the Commanders-Giants tie. Its account describes a Skattebo fumble followed by a disastrous end-of-game sequence from Washington. A tie leaves no clean result to read into, and we do not adjust for how one sequence played out. - CBS NFL also notes that the Giants hold an unlikely lead in the NFC East after a winless week for the division. - A CBS NFL weekly roundup is tagged to the Giants, but it is mostly about Drake Maye and touches none of our phases.
None of these items is a depth-chart change or an injury that gates our number.
What would change our mind
We will write again on this game if any of the following happens:
- The line moves 1.0 point or crosses 3 or 7. - The total of 45.5 moves 1.5. - Injury news arrives that gates a phase above, especially anything touching the Giants' defense, which drives the field-position separation. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.
If none of those happens, the 5.64-point gap stands as published. It is our number against the market's, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
This thread updates when the line moves a point or crosses 3 or 7, when the total moves 1.5, when gating injury news lands, or when our own rating moves after the week's games. All matchups.