Hurts out: line moves 2.5 to 3.5, and our gap to the market widens to 1.61

What changed

ESPN reports that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been ruled out against the Panthers with a blood clot. Rotowire lists him as out for Week 6 due to a blood clot on his calf. ProFootballTalk adds that Hurts won't say much about the "very unique" calf injury, which was disclosed last Friday. These are reports. We have not independently confirmed any of it.

The item touches dropback efficiency, the phase that covers how the quarterback moves the offense through the air. This entry is the 7th in the thread. Our published margin is -1.89, and the market's is -1.0. We are not claiming the market has or hasn't fully absorbed the news. The line-move triggers below are how we find out.

The number

Our projected margin for CAR at PHI is -1.89. The market's projected margin is -1.0, off a posted line of 1.0 and a posted total of 39.5. That puts our number -0.89 away from the market, on the CAR side.

This is a statement of where two numbers sit. It is not a recommendation, and a gap this size is small next to the uncertainty around a quarterback change.

Our power ratings put PHI at #29 with a rating of -2.88. CAR is #10 at 1.12.

Where the game separates

The three largest phase separations all favor CAR.

- Big plays (explosive rate): -1.517 standard deviations. CAR's offense ranks #1 against a PHI defense ranked #16. PHI's offense ranks #31 against a CAR defense ranked #27. - First and second down (early-down EPA): -1.157 standard deviations. CAR's offense is #2 and PHI's defense is #16. PHI's offense is #27 and CAR's defense is #27. - Staying on schedule (success rate): -1.155 standard deviations. CAR's offense is #13 and PHI's defense is #20. PHI's offense is #31 and CAR's defense is #22.

This is description, not prediction. Our matchup model has a 50.9% ATS record over 1184 games. Its most-confident quartile sits at 47.3%. The model does not beat the spread. Separation in a phase is therefore context for the number and not a statement that CAR covers. The idea we keep testing is which individual phases carry real signal, since the combined read does not.

On the wire

- ESPN NFL: Hurts ruled out vs. Panthers with blood clot. This touches dropback efficiency. - Rotowire NFL: Jalen Hurts out Week 6 due to blood clot on calf. - ProFootballTalk: Hurts won't say much about the "very unique" calf injury disclosed last Friday. - ESPN NFL (Barnwell) and CBS NFL (Agent's Take) both carry Eagles items on coaching seats and salary-cap handling after Lane Johnson's retirement. Neither is tied to a phase in our model.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happens:

- The posted line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The posted total of 39.5 moves 1.5. - Further injury news gates the quarterback position on either side. - Our own PHI or CAR rating moves 1.0 after the week's games.

This is research, not betting advice. 21+ where legal.

What changed

ProFootballTalk reports that Panthers QB Bryce Young was a full participant in practice, while RT Monroe Freeling and RB AJ Dillon did not practice. The wire tags this item to the dropback EPA phase, which covers the passing game and the protection in front of it.

The market's total moved from 40.5 to 39.5, a change of -1.0. The posted total is now 39.5. Our projected margin of -1.89 is the number the engine produced for this entry, and the facts show no change to it. A practice report is not a status designation, and we are reading it as one data point.

The number

Our projected margin is -1.89, which is Eagles minus Panthers. The market's projected margin is -1.0, from a posted line of 1.0. That leaves a gap of -0.89 points, with our number on the Panthers side of the market's.

The power ratings behind it: Carolina is #10 at 1.12 and Philadelphia is #29 at -2.88. Our rating span is 7.6 and the market's is 11.5, so our ratings sit in a tighter band than the market's.

This is a published number and where it differs from the market. It is not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.

Where the game separates

The three largest separations all point the same way, toward Carolina:

- Explosive rate (big plays): -1.517 standard deviations. Philadelphia's offense is #31 and Carolina's defense is #27. Carolina's offense is #1 and Philadelphia's defense is #16. - Early-down EPA (first and second down): -1.157 standard deviations. Philadelphia's offense is #27 and Carolina's defense is #27. Carolina's offense is #2 and Philadelphia's defense is #16. - Success rate (staying on schedule): -1.155 standard deviations. Philadelphia's offense is #31 and Carolina's defense is #22. Carolina's offense is #13 and Philadelphia's defense is #20.

This is a description of where the matchup separates, not a forecast. The matchup model's record against the spread is 50.9% over 1184 games. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst, at 47.3%. Its verdict is that it does not beat the spread, so separation in these phases does not tell us a team covers.

On the wire

- Carolina, dropback EPA: ProFootballTalk's practice report on Young, Freeling and Dillon. Freeling is a right tackle, so his absence touches pass protection. Whether either player is limited or ruled out in a game designation is not yet known. - Philadelphia, transactions: Yahoo NFL and ProFootballTalk report that the Eagles opened 21-day practice windows for Landon Dickerson and three others returning from injured reserve. Neither item is tied to a phase in our data. - Philadelphia, context: ESPN's weekly buzz piece on the slumping Eagles is tagged to dropback EPA. ProFootballTalk also reports the NFL is considering flexing Eagles-Commanders out of prime time, which does not bear on this game. - CBS NFL ran a column on Philadelphia's cap moves after Lane Johnson's retirement.

These are reports and not confirmed facts. We have not adjusted our number for any of them.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of the following happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 39.5. - Gating injury news arrives, such as a game designation for Young or Freeling. - Our own rating moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until then, the number stands at -1.89 against the market's -1.0.

What changed

The line moved from -1.0 to +1.0, a change of 2.0 points. Our own projection did not move. Only the market's number did, and it moved toward ours.

Before the move, the gap between our projected margin and the market was -2.89. It is now -0.89, a change of 2.0 points. The side we are on is still CAR, but the disagreement is much smaller than when we last wrote.

The new wire items are listed below. None of them is a gating injury report, and we have not changed our rating on either team in this update.

The number

We project this game at -1.89. The market-implied margin is -1.0, and the posted line is +1.0. The posted total is 40.5.

That leaves a disagreement of -0.89 points on the CAR side. This is a research number, not a recommendation. It is the distance between two estimates, and a gap this size is easy for ordinary uncertainty to absorb.

Behind it, our power ratings have PHI at #29 with a rating of -2.88 and CAR at #10 with a rating of 1.12. Our ratings span 7.6 points, and the market's span 11.5.

Where the game separates

The matchup model sees the game separating in three phases. All three favor CAR, and the sections below describe the matchup. They do not predict a cover.

Big plays (Explosive rate), separation -1.517 SD. CAR's offense ranks #1 and PHI's defense ranks #16. PHI's offense ranks #31 against a CAR defense ranked #27.

First and second down (Early-down EPA), separation -1.157 SD. CAR's offense ranks #2 against that same #16 PHI defense. PHI's offense ranks #27, and CAR's defense ranks #27.

Staying on schedule (Success rate), separation -1.155 SD. CAR's offense ranks #13 and PHI's defense ranks #20. PHI's offense ranks #31 against a CAR defense ranked #22.

We treat these as a description of where the teams differ, and the matchup model's own record limits how far we lean on them. It has covered at a 50.9% rate across a sample of 1184 games. Its most confident quartile has covered at 47.3%. The verdict is that it does not beat the spread, so a large separation here does not mean CAR covers. We are testing how these phase ranks interact with the power ratings before we give them any weight in the number.

On the wire

ESPN NFL's buzz column on the slumping Eagles touches the dropback EPA phase for PHI. It is a report on the team's slump, not a confirmed change to anyone's role.

ProFootballTalk reports that the NFL is considering flexing Eagles-Commanders out of prime time. CBS NFL separately reports the league is eyeing a possible Sunday night schedule change. Neither item touches a phase in this game.

ProFootballTalk also carries a piece on CAR's Taylor Moton and his recovery from blood clots in the lung, and a quote from PHI's Liam Coen about avoiding delay of game penalties. We map neither to a phase.

These are reports, not confirmed facts. Kickoff is Sun 1:00PM ET.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of the following happens:

- The line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 40.5. - Gating injury news arrives for either side. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Otherwise, the current picture holds: a small disagreement of -0.89, and a matchup that separates on big plays and early downs. For readers 21+ where legal, this is research, not advice.

What changed

Our rating on the game moved from -3.2 to -1.9. In full precision, our number went from -3.17 to -1.89, a change of 1.28 points. The posted line did not drive this. It is still Eagles -1.0, and the total is still 40.5. The move is on our side of the ledger, and it closed part of the distance to the market. The disagreement was -4.17 and is now -2.89.

Three wire items arrived in the window. One is a Panthers offensive line report, one is an Eagles running back visit, and one is a league scheduling note. We do not tie the move to any single item. The page publishes the number, and it does not claim a cause.

The number

We project the game at -1.89 from Philadelphia's side. That puts Carolina ahead on our numbers. The market's projected margin is 1.0 for the Eagles. The gap between the two is -2.89 points, and Carolina is the side we sit on.

Power ratings tell a similar story. Philadelphia is #29 at -2.88. Carolina is #10 at 1.12. Our ratings span 7.6 points across the league. The market's span 11.5. Our scale is compressed relative to the market's, so a gap of this size should be read with that in mind.

This is a published disagreement, and it is not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.

Where the game separates

The largest separation is in explosive rate, or big plays, at -1.517 standard deviations. The edge goes to Carolina. Philadelphia's offense ranks #31 here, against a Carolina defense at #27. Carolina's own offense ranks #1, and Philadelphia's defense ranks #16.

Early-down EPA, meaning first and second down, separates by -1.157 standard deviations, again toward Carolina. The Eagles' offense is #27 and the Panthers' defense is #27. The Panthers' offense is #2, and the Eagles' defense is #16.

Success rate, or staying on schedule, separates by -1.155 standard deviations. Philadelphia's offense is #31 and Carolina's defense is #22. Carolina's offense is #13, and Philadelphia's defense is #20.

These are descriptions of the matchup. They are not predictions. Our matchup model has covered the spread 50.9% of the time across 1184 games. In its most confident quartile it is at 47.3%. It does not beat the spread, so separation in these phases is not evidence that Carolina covers. Our next test is whether the phase gaps carry information when they are tied to price movement rather than to the final result.

On the wire

ESPN NFL reports that Panthers OL Moton took part in his first padded practice since a clot diagnosis. That touches the sack rate phase. Rotowire reports that Jalen Coker took part in practice Tuesday. We do not map that item to a phase.

Yahoo NFL reports that the Eagles hosted a familiar running back on a free agent visit. It was updated, and it touches the rushing EPA phase. CBS NFL reports that the league is looking at a possible Sunday night flex. It touches no phase, and it is not a fact until the league announces it.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of the following happens:

- The posted line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 40.5. - Gating injury news lands for either side, including the offensive line. - Our own rating moves 1.0 after the week's games.

Until one of those happens, the number stands at -1.89 against a posted -1.0.

What changed

The line has crossed zero. Since our last entry the posted spread went from 1.0 to -1.0, a -2.0 move toward the Eagles. The total also came down, from 41.5 to 40.5 (-1.0).

Our number did not follow. The edge went from -2.17 to -4.17, and that -2.0 edge change is exactly the -2.0 line change. All of the movement was on the market's side. Our projected margin is still -3.17, which means the Panthers by that amount.

The news that triggered this entry is a Carolina roster move. ProFootballTalk reports that the Panthers have designated RB Trevor Etienne for return and placed DT Cam Jackson on IR. Our tagging puts that item in the rushing-EPA phase. We aren't saying it caused the line move. It came in during the same window, and the market moved toward the opponent of the team that lost a defensive tackle.

The number

The posted line is -1.0, which puts the market's projected margin at 1.0 for Philadelphia. We have it at -3.17. The disagreement is -4.17 points, and we sit on the CAR side of it.

The power ratings explain most of the gap. Carolina is #10 in our ratings at 1.12. Philadelphia is #29 at -2.88. Our ratings also run in a narrower band than the market's: 7.6 points from top to bottom, against 11.5 for the market's. Even with that tighter spread, we still have these two teams well apart.

Where the game separates

Explosive rate (big gains): -1.517 SD, CAR. This is the widest gap on the board. Carolina's offense ranks #1 and faces the Eagles' #16 defense. Philadelphia's offense ranks #31 against a Panthers defense at #27.

Early-down EPA (first and second down): -1.157 SD, CAR. The Panthers' offense is #2 and meets the #16 defense. The Eagles' offense is #27, and Carolina's defense is also #27.

Success rate (staying on schedule): -1.155 SD, CAR. Carolina's offense is #13 against Philadelphia's #20 defense. The Eagles' offense is #31 against the Panthers' #22 defense.

All of this describes the matchup. None of it predicts the result. The matchup model's own verdict is: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." Over a sample of 1184 games it is 50.9% against the spread, and 47.3% in its top quartile. So the separation tells us where the game is likely to tilt. It doesn't tell us who covers.

On the wire

- Etienne / Jackson (CAR). ProFootballTalk reports the designation and the IR move. Tagged to rushing EPA. - Jalyx Hunt (PHI). ESPN reports that the Eagles' defensive coordinator called it "pretty miraculous" if Hunt (ankle, knee) suits up against Carolina. ProFootballTalk carries the same comment from Vic Fangio. Tagged to sack rate. - Eagles offensive line. Yahoo reports that Howie Roseman is shopping for a starting-caliber offensive lineman. This is a rumor, not a transaction. Tagged to sack rate. - Jalen Coker (CAR). Rotowire reports that Coker took part in practice Tuesday. It isn't tied to a phase.

Both sack-rate items involve Philadelphia: a pass rusher whose availability is in doubt and a reported search for help up front. Neither is confirmed as a lineup change yet.

What would change our mind

We'll write again on any of these:

- the line moves another 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7 - the total moves 1.5 (this week's -1.0 is under that bar) - gating injury news, including confirmation on Hunt or on Etienne's activation - our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games

Until then, the market sits at -1.0 and we sit at -3.17.

*21+ where legal.*

What changed

The line moved from -1.5 to +1.0, a change of 2.5 points. Philadelphia went from favorite to home underdog. Our number didn't move, so the whole shift came out of the gap between us and the market. That gap was -4.67 when we last wrote and is now -2.17. The market moved toward our number. We didn't move toward theirs.

We've picked up two new wire items since the last entry. Yahoo NFL asks whether the Panthers will restock at linebacker in April, and Yahoo NFL also runs Roob's Eagles Stats under the headline "some positive numbers amidst the wreckage." Neither one touches a phase we model, so neither one changed our number.

The number

We project Philadelphia's margin at -3.17, which means Carolina wins by that much in our model. The posted +1.0 implies a market margin of -1.0. That leaves a disagreement of -2.17 points, on the CAR side.

The power ratings explain most of it. Carolina is #9 at 1.12, and Philadelphia is #29 at -2.88. Our ratings are also more compressed than the market's: our span from top to bottom is 7.6 points, against 11.5 for the market. We separate teams less than the market does in general, yet here we still have the road team ahead of the posted price.

This is a published number set against a published line, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.

Where the game separates

All three of the largest phase gaps favor Carolina:

- Big plays (Explosive rate): -1.546 SD. Carolina's offense is #1 against a Philadelphia defense ranked #17. Going the other way, the Eagles' offense is #31 against a Panthers defense ranked #27. - First and second down (Early-down EPA): -1.176 SD. Carolina's offense is #2 against Philadelphia's #16 defense. The Eagles' offense is #27 against Carolina's #28 defense. - Staying on schedule (Success rate): -1.173 SD. Carolina's offense is #12 against Philadelphia's #20 defense. The Eagles' offense is #31 against Carolina's #22 defense.

These gaps describe the matchup. They are not a forecast. The matchup model is 50.9% against the spread over a sample of 1184, and its most confident quartile goes 47.3%. In the model's own words: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." The game may well separate in these phases, but that tells us nothing about who covers.

On the wire

CBS NFL reports that Eagles RB Will Shipley could miss weeks, and that Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby are also hurt. That is the only item tied to a phase we track: the rushing EPA phase, which isn't among the top three above. It's still a report, not a confirmed status.

CBS NFL also has two pieces criticizing Nick Sirianni's in-game decisions over the weekend, and a third noting that the Eagles opened as favorites despite what it calls a "massive disadvantage." None of these touches a modeled phase. On Carolina, the only item is the Yahoo NFL linebacker piece, which looks ahead to the draft.

What would change our mind

We'll write again if any of these happens:

- The spread moves another 1.0 point from +1.0, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from its posted 41.5. - Injury news that matters to our number, especially if the reported Philadelphia running-back injuries are confirmed or a Carolina offensive starter is ruled out. - Either team's rating moves 1.0 after this week's games.

Until one of those happens, the gap stays at -2.17.

What changed

Our rating on the game moved -1.9 to -3.2. Our projected margin went from -1.89 to -3.17, a change of -1.28, and the whole of it went into the gap. That gap was -3.39 at the last entry and is now -4.67.

In plain terms, our number has moved further toward the Panthers since our first note on this game. The market has the Eagles favoured. We now have the visitors ahead by more than we did before.

Several wire items came in during the same window, covered below. Our feed doesn't link any of them to a matchup phase, so we don't attribute the move to them.

The number

The posted line is -1.5 and the posted total is 41.5. The market's projected margin is 1.5. Ours is -3.17. The difference is -4.67 points, and it puts us on the CAR side of the disagreement.

The gap comes from the team ratings. Our power ratings have Carolina at #9 with a rating of 1.12 and Philadelphia at #29 with a rating of -2.88. The two scales also differ in width: our ratings span 7.6 points across the league and the market's span 11.5. Our scale is the more compressed one, yet on this matchup it still lands well away from the market.

Where the game separates

Three phases show the widest gaps, and all three lean CAR.

Big plays (explosive rate), -1.546 SD. Carolina's offense ranks #1 and faces a Philadelphia defense at #17. On the other side, the Eagles' offense ranks #31 against a Panthers defense at #27.

First and second down (early-down EPA), -1.176 SD. Carolina's offense ranks #2 against Philadelphia's #16 defense. Philadelphia's offense ranks #27 against Carolina's #28 defense, which makes this the weakest unit on either side of this phase.

Staying on schedule (success rate), -1.173 SD. Carolina's offense ranks #12 against Philadelphia's #20 defense. Philadelphia's offense ranks #31 against Carolina's #22 defense.

These phases describe how the matchup looks. They do not predict a result. The matchup model behind them has hit 50.9% against the spread over a sample of 1184 games. In its most confident quartile it has hit 47.3%. Our verdict on that model: it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. A large separation on paper tells you where the teams differ, not who covers.

On the wire

Rotowire reports that Saquon Barkley could return. Rotowire also reports that DeVonta Smith has a chance to return. Our feed tags both items to CAR, but both players are Eagles, so we treat the tagging as unreliable until it is confirmed.

ProFootballTalk reports that the Panthers are opening practice windows for Taylor Moton and Turk Wharton. ProFootballTalk also reports that Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts appeared to disagree on how Philadelphia's final drive was managed. A separate ProFootballTalk item says Sirianni's kick-coverage unit confirmed a mistake of his.

None of these items is linked to a matchup phase in our feed. They are reports, not confirmed changes to anyone's availability.

What would change our mind

We will write again if any of these happen:

- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5. - Injury news gates a player in one of the phases above. A confirmed status for either of the Eagles names on the wire would qualify. - Our own rating on the game moves 1.0 after the week's games.

The last of these is what triggered this entry. 21+ where legal.

The number

The Panthers visit the Eagles Sun 1:00PM ET, and this thread opens on a disagreement. The posted line has Philadelphia at -1.5 with a total of 41.5. The market's implied home margin is 1.5. Ours is -1.89, so we have the Eagles losing this game at home.

The gap is -3.39 points, toward CAR. That gap sits across the 3, which is the most common NFL margin, so it is wider than its size suggests.

The power ratings explain most of it. We rate Carolina #9 at 1.12 and Philadelphia #29 at -2.88. The market prices the Eagles as the better team. We price them as the weaker one.

One more piece of context. Our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom, while the market's span 11.5. Our scale is the more compressed of the two, so we are not getting to this number by being more extreme than the market. We just order these two teams the other way around.

Where the game separates

Our strongest phase separations all run the same way, toward Carolina.

Explosive rate (big gains), -1.546 SD, CAR. This is the widest one. Carolina's offense ranks #1 and faces a Philadelphia defense at #17. On the other side, the Eagles' offense ranks #31 against a Carolina defense at #27. That defense is weak, but the Eagles' offense ranks below it.

Early-down EPA (first and second down), -1.176 SD, CAR. The Panthers' offense is #2 against an Eagles defense at #16. Philadelphia's offense is #27 against a Carolina defense at #28. Both defenses are soft on early downs, but only one of these offenses ranks near the top.

Success rate (staying on schedule), -1.173 SD, CAR. This is the closest of the three on the Carolina side: offense #12 against defense #20. Philadelphia's offense ranks #31 again, here against a defense at #22.

The matchup model's own verdict sets the limit on what these numbers mean. It is "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." Over 1184 games it is 50.9% against the spread, and 47.3% in its top quartile. This section describes where the game separates. It does not say that the separation decides who covers.

On the wire

ProFootballTalk reports that Eagles RB Will Shipley is out multiple weeks with a foot injury. That touches the rushing EPA phase, which is not among the top separations above.

The rest of the Philadelphia wire is commentary, not personnel. CBS NFL ran several pieces on Nick Sirianni after the London loss to the Jaguars, including one asking whether his seat is "getting warmer" and one on decisions by Sirianni and Dan Quinn in pivotal moments. CBS NFL also had an early-odds piece noting the Eagles were favored "despite massive disadvantage." None of these items maps to a phase, and none moves our number.

What would change our mind

We publish a number and where it differs from the market. We do not tell anyone what to bet. 21+ where legal.

We will write again on this game if any of these happens:

- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7 in either direction. - The total moves 1.5 from 41.5. - Gating injury news lands for either side, especially anything touching the explosive or early-down phases. - Our rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games are folded in.

Until one of those happens, our number stays at -1.89 against a market of 1.5.