Texans' Montgomery, Pitre ruled out for London; our JAX number reads +5.72
Our projected margin for Jacksonville sits 3.22 points from the posted -2.5, and the Texans' travel list just got thinner.
Our number
+5.7
Market
+2.5
Gap
+3.2
We publish where our number differs from the market. We do not publish plays. Betting these disagreements is 117-98 (54.4%) forward-graded against 52.4% breakeven, and the matchup model itself covers at 50.9% over 1184 games. A gap is a disagreement, not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
What changed
ESPN NFL reports that Texans RB David Montgomery and S Jalen Pitre are out for the London game against the Jaguars. ProFootballTalk reports that WR Tank Dell, Montgomery and Pitre will not travel to London at all. Both are wire reports, not confirmed facts. We are treating them as the news that moved this page.
Here is what we can say about our number. As published, it reads +5.72 for Jacksonville. The posted line is JAX -2.5. We are not attributing a specific move in either figure to this report, and we will not claim the absences are fully reflected in the market. The wire tags the Montgomery/Pitre item to the explosive-rate phase of the game, which is not one of the three phases where this matchup separates most.
The number
Our projected margin is JAX by +5.72. The market's implied margin is 2.5, which puts the gap between us and the posted line at 3.22 points. The posted total is 42.5.
The power ratings line up with that direction. Jacksonville is #4 at 3.57. Houston is #17 at -0.05. We publish the gap as a number, not as a recommendation. The kickoff is Sun 9:30AM ET.
Where the game separates
Three phases show the widest gaps, and all three favor Jacksonville on paper.
Red-zone TD rate (inside the 20), 1.913 standard deviations. The Jaguars' offense is #12 against a Texans defense at #14. Houston's offense is #25 against a Jaguars defense at #2.
Points per drive (finishing drives), 1.814 standard deviations. Jacksonville's offense is #7 against Houston's defense at #17. Houston's offense is #21 against Jacksonville's defense at #2.
EPA per play (overall efficiency), 1.469 standard deviations. The Jaguars' offense is #8 against a Texans defense at #20. Houston's offense is #14 against Jacksonville's defense at #3.
This is description, not prediction. The matchup model has a graded record of its own: 50.9% against the spread across a sample of 1184 games. Its most confident quartile is at 47.3%. Its verdict is that it does not beat the spread, and the quartile it is most confident about is its worst. A game separating in a phase tells us where the matchup is lopsided. It does not tell us who covers. Our next test is whether the ratings gap carries more weight than the phase-level read.
On the wire
The ESPN NFL item (Texans RB Montgomery, S Pitre out) touches the explosive-rate phase. Montgomery is a ball carrier and Pitre is in the secondary, so the report reaches both sides of Houston's ball. The ProFootballTalk item adds Tank Dell to the list of players who will not travel. It carries no phase tag.
Neither item is in our top-three phase list, so we are noting them rather than re-weighting the read above.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of the following happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 42.5. - Further gating injury news arrives, or the wire reports above are contradicted. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
The gap between the posted -2.5 and our +5.72 is a statement about two numbers and nothing more. 21+ where legal.
Texans activate OT Braden Smith; total moves 43.5 to 42.5 at JAX -2.5
What changed
ProFootballTalk reports that the Texans activated OT Braden Smith from injured reserve. Our wire tags the item as an out-for-season designation, and it carries no phase mapping, so we are not assigning it to any phase of the matchup model. We are recording the transaction and nothing more.
The market moved on the same page. The total was 43.5 at our last entry and is now 42.5, a change of -1.0. The posted line is JAX -2.5. We are not attributing the total move to the Smith news. The facts do not say what drove it. Our projected margin is 5.72 for Jacksonville.
The number
Our projected margin is Jaguars by 5.72. The market's is 2.5, the posted line. That leaves a gap of 3.22 points, with us on the Jacksonville side.
The power ratings point the same way. Jacksonville is #4 at 3.57. Houston is #17 at -0.05. Our ratings span 7.6 points from top to bottom, while the market's span 11.5. Our scale is narrower than the market's, so the gap is not only a matter of one team being rated higher.
This is a statement of where two numbers differ, not a recommendation. Kickoff is Sun 9:30AM ET.
Where the game separates
Three phases show the widest separation, and all three favor Jacksonville.
Red-zone TD rate (inside the 20): 1.913 standard deviations. Jacksonville's offense ranks #12 against a Houston defense ranked #14. Houston's offense ranks #25 against a Jacksonville defense ranked #2.
Points per drive (finishing drives): 1.814 standard deviations. Jacksonville's offense ranks #7 against Houston's #17 defense. Houston's #21 offense faces Jacksonville's #2 defense.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 1.469 standard deviations. Jacksonville's #8 offense meets Houston's #20 defense. Houston's #14 offense meets Jacksonville's #3 defense.
This is description, not prediction. The matchup model has a 50.9% record against the spread over 1,184 games, and its verdict is that it does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about, at 47.3%, is its worst. A game that separates in these phases tells us how the teams are built. It does not tell us who covers.
On the wire
- Texans activate OT Braden Smith from IR (ProFootballTalk). It is tagged out-for-season and touches no phase in our model. - Marvin Harrison Jr. as the latest addition in Houston's search for a WR2 (ESPN NFL). A transaction item that touches the dropback EPA phase. - Barnwell sizes up two confusing decisions (ESPN NFL). A Texans-tagged column with no phase attached. - Liam Coen: "I can do more to avoid delay of game penalties" (ProFootballTalk), and Coen to tweak playcalling after delay of game issues vs. the Eagles (ESPN NFL). Both are Jaguars items with no phase mapping. They are reports of intent from the coach, and we treat them that way.
What would change our mind
We will write again if any of the following happens:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from the current 42.5. - Gating injury news arrives for either side, including anything that changes how we read the Houston offensive line or receiver room. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after the week's games.
Until then, the entry stands. We publish the number, 5.72 against 2.5, and the phases behind it. 21+ where legal.
HOU at JAX: we make it Jaguars by 5.72, the market says 2.5
The number
The thread opens with HOU at JAX, kicking off Sun 9:30AM ET. The posted line is JAX -2.5 and the total is 43.5. Our projected margin is Jaguars by 5.72. The market's projected margin is 2.5, so we sit 3.22 points apart, and our number is further toward JAX.
Most of the gap comes from the power ratings. Jacksonville ranks #4 in our ratings at 3.57. Houston ranks #17 at -0.05, which is close to league-average. Our ratings also tend to run tighter than the market's: our span from top to bottom is 7.6, against 11.5 for the market. A gap this large is less common from a model that usually separates teams less than the market does. That doesn't make our number right. It does mean the gap doesn't come from a model that habitually stretches teams apart.
Where the game separates
The three phases that separate this game most all lean JAX, and they're all about finishing drives.
Red-zone TD rate (inside the 20): 1.928 SD, JAX. Jacksonville's offense ranks #12 here, against a Houston defense at #14. The bigger gap is on the other side: Houston's offense ranks #24 inside the 20, and Jacksonville's defense ranks #2.
Points per drive (finishing drives): 1.845 SD, JAX. The Jaguars' offense is #7 against a Texans defense at #18. Houston's offense is #21 against a Jacksonville defense at #2.
EPA per play (overall efficiency): 1.47 SD, JAX. Jacksonville's offense ranks #8 against Houston's #20 defense. Houston's offense ranks #14 against Jacksonville's #3 defense.
The same pattern shows up in all three: a top-three Jacksonville defense facing a Houston offense in the bottom half of the league. That is a description of the matchup, not a forecast. Our matchup model has gone 50.9% against the spread across a sample of 1184 games. In its most confident quartile it has gone 47.3%. Its own verdict: "Does not beat the spread. The quartile it is most confident about is its worst." The trenches favor JAX on paper, but we have no evidence that this kind of separation translates into covering.
On the wire
The wire is all Houston and all transactions this week.
CBS NFL and ESPN NFL report that the Texans have traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., the former top-5 pick, sending the Cardinals multiple draft choices. ProFootballTalk carries C.J. Stroud saying the reunion is "perfect for him." Our tagging maps these items to dropback efficiency and explosive-play rate. ESPN's Barnwell piece on the trade isn't tagged to any phase.
ProFootballTalk also reports Robert Saleh saying "Cam Ward's our starting quarterback," which is tagged to dropback efficiency. That headline and the Stroud item point in different directions on who is under center, and we treat both as reports until the depth chart settles it.
None of these items touches the three phases above directly. They bear on Houston's passing game, which is where the quarterback question would show up first.
What would change our mind
We'll write again on this game if any of these happen:
- The line moves 1.0 point, or crosses 3 or 7. - The total moves 1.5 from 43.5. - Injury news gates either quarterback or the Jacksonville defense, or confirms the Houston starter. - Our own rating for either team moves 1.0 after this week's games.
This entry publishes our number and where it differs from the market's. It is not a recommendation. 21+ where legal.
This thread updates when the line moves a point or crosses 3 or 7, when the total moves 1.5, when gating injury news lands, or when our own rating moves after the week's games. All matchups.